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Volatility is decreasing but there is no shortage of arbitrage opportunities

On November 22, Bitcoin reached $38,400 but later corrected. It is currently trading around $37,000. Analysts believe that BTC is still in a long-term uptrend, but we may see some fluctuations in the short term.

Bhutan announced that it is building a state-run BTC mining facility, the world’s first state-owned Bitcoin mine. Additionally, business intelligence firm MicroStrategy announced that it purchased another 1,000 BTC worth approximately $37 million.

This has been a pretty flat week. Volatility drops sharply as we await the main event of 2024: the Bitcoin halving.

When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, miners received a reward of 50 BTC for each confirmed block. The first halving in 2012 reduced this reward to 25 BTC; then at 12.5 BTC in 2016; Finally, in May 2020, the last “halving” took place and the reward dropped to 6.25 BTC. According to predictions, the next halving will occur in approximately 141 days.

The current situation is quite calm, volatility has decreased. Below we report the BTC volatility index:

The trend established earlier remains valid and this trend sees very precise crossovers. The price seems to be predicted towards $41,000: as seen in the chart, the diagonals exactly predict the move.

Strength of current trend

The strength of the trend has decreased significantly compared to last week:

  • Previous week: 3
  • Current week: 1



In the above chart we used a point analysis methodology based on linear regression lines. Inside this video I will explain what happened.

POC volumetric analysis

Point of Control or POC (Point of Control) indicates the price line with maximum volume: thus, it indicates the level at which the market considers the fair value or true value of an asset in the period under consideration. Bitcoin’s POC currently stands at $34,400, the same as last week.

If we take the last round of rises as a reference point, we see that POC is higher in exactly the area it is currently hitting.

Seasonality analysis

Seasonal forecasts were followed very well, even being brought forward to November. Barring any unexpected news, we should not experience a major decline in BTC by the end of the year.

I remember that the seasonality indicator determines movements and direction, not size. This is a I have indicator, is available free of charge to anyone who wishes to download and install it on TradingView. All my analysis is performed with software provided by TradingView.

prediction model

Now let’s look at a forecasting model that has been very accurate in the past, at least from a management perspective.

Arbitrage opportunities

The chart below analyzes the price of BTC in relation to itself across two major cryptocurrency exchanges. In particular, the chart is obtained by calculating BTC (Coinbase) – BTC (Binance): we would all expect a flat chart where the values ​​are always very close to zero, but there can be misalignments between the two major operators in the industry, even as much as 600 USD in some cases.

This has been an incredible week for arbitrageurs: twice, there has been a spread of nearly $200. I recommend you take a look at the site to better understand this type of trading

Mirko Castignani He is a trader, entrepreneur and financial educator. As a teacher since 2017, he has collaborated with trading companies of the caliber of Avatrade, WeBank and SaxoBank, Directa SIM, iBroker. He is also a member of SIAT and AIEF, as well as being a guest on American financial markets on CNBC.

He founded it together with Andrea Vaturi in 2013. Unfair Advantage: Financial education company currently collaborating with leading Italian credit institutions and Spanish brokers. Today he is also part of the board of directors of ANPIB, the National Association of Private and Investment Bankers.

He regularly posts market updates on his own account telegram channel. He also comments on the markets live from his own account every day at 15.30 (at the opening of Wall Street). Youtube channel. Class is broadcast live every Tuesday at 2.20pm on CNBC, Sky channel 507.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading transaction involves risk, so you should do your own research before making a decision.

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