Despite the approval of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for spot Bitcoin (Bitcoin) will likely cause the price to rise, although some analysts fear this may not be enough to fully rescue the markets from the crypto winter.
On October 24, Bitcoin surged more than 14%, its biggest daily rally in over a year, on news that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF ticker – IBTC was listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website. A positive step towards the launch of the fund.
It turned out that the increase was stronger than the report published by Cointelegraph on October 16. wrong post He suggested approving a spot Bitcoin ETF on X.
Cointelegraph interview with trader nicknamed TheFlowHorse, who has 184,000 followers Indicator of price movement if a spot ETF is approved.
TheFlowHorse added that investors may see some movement regarding the two developments and their implications “Same size, if not bigger” If the ETF is approved.
However, TheFlowHorse noted that the approval would likely increase prices significantly, but also This will likely be followed by a medium-term pullback.
This is because, according to TheFlowHorse, the buying will be driven largely by impatient investors eager to follow the news.
“There will be turmoil… and it will ultimately trigger an inefficient move. Inefficient moves will track some of that.”added.
IG International analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph that he expects Bitcoin to continue rising to new yearly highs on announcement day, while technical analyst Rachael Lucas of Australian exchange BTC Markets said: BlackRock’s ETF approval will be a catalyst for the rest of the traditional financial sector.
“This participation not only strengthens institutional capital inflows, but also increases private curiosity, helps limit supply and highlights the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin.”
Here’s a short clip of @kaileyleinz asking Gensler about $GBTC and other spot #Bitcoin ETFs. In my opinion, he does not answer, but he mentions the information review team. From the changes some of these depositors have made in the last few days, we have learned about their processes.
Here is a short clip @kaileyleinz Asking Gensler this $GBTC and other points #Bitcoin ETFs. To me there is mostly no answer but the description talks about the review team. We have gained some insight into their processes through changes some of these filers have made in recent days. pic.twitter.com/lIWZc74OAi
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) 18 October 2023
However, there is a possibility that “the rally will be sustained,” according to Sycamore, but a large-scale recovery seems unlikely given that interest rates remain significantly higher than when the asset reached its previous historical high.
CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng also thinks: It would be right to adopt a more cautious attitude.Because a complete reversal of the trend is not guaranteed.
“Bitcoin does not yet have the fundamentals to support quantitative valuation like stocks and does not have the scope of use like commodities. An approval from the SEC cannot change the nature of a speculative asset.”
“Macro changes will have a strong impact on cryptocurrency markets, which typically begin to trend upward during the Fed rate-cutting cycle.”Teng concluded his words.
The certainty and timing of Bitcoin ETF approval is still a matter of debate. Although unlikely, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler could wait until the last minute to reject applications in an “incredibly sadistic” manner, ETF analysts said.
while JPMorgan analystsIn an investment note dated October 17, he said: approval could come in the next few monthsThe general consensus, backed by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas: It put the chances of approval at 90% by January 10 next year..
Over the past few weeks I’ve received many questions regarding my current view on #Bitcoin Spot ETFs. This is the first part of the note I shared with @EricBalchunas yesterday.
Our view hasn’t changed much.
TLDR: Our opinion hasn’t changed much pic.twitter.com/Htsi3n2XxV
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) 13 October 2023
Translation by Walter Rizzo