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End of August BTC Price Exit? Five things to watch out for this week

As this new week begins, Bitcoin (bitcoin) paints a typical August picture with no volatility.
In an environment of extremely stable price action, the top-cap cryptocurrency remains stuck in a narrow trading range below $30,000.
For the long or short term, Bitcoin is causing market participants to become increasingly frustrated. Despite the bull-bear struggle on the exchanges, neither side seems likely to be able to trigger a new price trend for BTC.
Will the status quo stay the same this week?
While there are several macroeconomic factors in store, catalysts for change will need to come from other sources. The data shows that whales are accumulating, fueling the argument that Bitcoin is, as usual, the next big breakout phase.
This result comes from one of the tightest volatility recorded in Bitcoin, according to the Bollinger Bands metric, where current conditions compete with those in September 2016 and January 2023.
By definition, it may be just a matter of time before history repeats itself.

Bitcoin emulation movement kicks off in new December week

The weekly close saw some volatility return in Bitcoin’s spot price performance, but just like last week, it was short-lived.
Following the opening of the new weekly candlestick, BTC/USD fell to test $29,000 and bounced back to its previous position; still valid at the time of this writing. Cointelegraph Markets Expert And Trade View.

Hourly BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of Eight trading firm, noted such similarities and reiterated his view that the level to be claimed for bulls is $29,700.
On the weekends, van de Poppe described the overall lack of volatility as “extremely surprising”.
“Classic Sunday Night Dump in Bitcoin”, reports on X by sharing a chart showing their interests.

“Support, all good. Range continues. Party starts at over $29,700.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades had a similar view of short-term moves, noting that: weekend conditions also tended to unusually calm extremes.
“As expected, the CME revolves around the closing price. We haven’t seen anything like this in a long time.”have synthesized.

“This time the volatility was extremely low. Even for a weekend.”

Interpreted chart of BTC/USD. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

An accompanying chart shows the previous week’s CME Bitcoin futures closing price of $29,465 as the focus for the week start.

Weekly close fixes key BTC price level

But the weekly close has managed to offer a glimmer of hope for those who analyze long-term trends.
Bitcoin managed to narrowly close the weekly candlestick above $29,250, the key level highlighted by popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital in recent weeks.
In a post on X shortly before the rally, Rekt Capital referred to the previous behavior of BTC prices after a close of $29,250 or higher.
“BTC rally took place in the ~$30,200 region, just like last week and April 2023”have underlined.

“However, if BTC can close above ~$29,250 weekly, the upside wick will no longer be so bearish.”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Relative strength index (RSI) data on weekly timeframes provided a potential headwind. continued to present a bearish trend with the price.
“Weekly bearish divergence for BTC will remain intact as long as the RSI fails to break the downtrend (green)”is commenting Rect Capital about the phenomenon.

BTC/USD weekly chart with RSI. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Historical data gives a few clues as to how the BTC/USD pair might perform ahead of the monthly close.
As Cointelegraph reported, August has been a mixed month in terms of BTC price performance and so far. the asset has hardly moved since the end of July.
tracking source data Coin Glass It shows that current gains of 0.6% constitute the weakest August month on record for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD Monthly Yield Chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Low volatility drives BTC price breakout predictions

It is impossible to avoid the issue of volatility – or lack of volatility – when analyzing the current state of Bitcoin.
Despite heavy media coverage, the almost complete absence of sudden price movements, even outside of the cryptocurrency world, has been the defining feature of BTC price for most of the second quarter.
The latest data makes it clear how static the landscape has become and what might happen next.
Bitcoin’s Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) currently measures 9.57 on a weekly timeframe and is rapidly returning to all-time lows since the start of this year.
What happened when Bitcoin broke out of its downtrend in January is certainly not a secret, given its Q1 gain of 70%.

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) weekly chart. Source: TradingView

“Bitcoin’s volatility is falling”, claims Van de Poppe.

“It’s just a matter of 1-2 weeks before there’s a big move in the markets.”

Similar results come from the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, which now repeats the behavior of early 2023.
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands prevents a price breakout and while it is unknown whether it will be up or down, the size of the price squeeze has prompted market participants to prepare for a drastic change.
“The difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin is only 2.9% and has never been tighter”Checkmate, lead chain analyst at Glassnode, to post Released today on X.
Checkmate revealed that Bitcoin has only managed to record two tighter Bollinger Bands in its history, in September 2016 and January 2023.
“Crazy Things”he finished.

He commented on the Bollinger Bands chart in Bitcoin. Source: Matt/X

Whale ‘redeposition’ narrative reinforced

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported that there were interesting movements below the static BTC price action among Bitcoin whales.
The analysis shows that the situation continues and what appears to be an accumulation is becoming an increasingly important topic of conversation for those looking for signs of a bull market return.
“Over the past two weeks, around 10 Bitcoin whales have joined the network, each holding at least 1,000 BTC (worth at least $29.4 million)!”famous merchant noted Wings during the weekend.
according to data glass knotThe total number of addresses with at least 1,000 BTC balances increased from 2.005 as of August 1 to 2,015 as of August 13.

Graph of the number of Bitcoin addresses with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode

Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, reported that new whales have appeared on major exchange Bitfinex as proof of this. “something is bubbling under the surface”.

And #Bitmex whales joined the party. Last night, I received 3 notifications of new large long positions.
Something is brewing beneath the surface

“Strong start from low rpm, currently in regroup mode”continues rooton-chain and cycle analyst show realized price data.
The realized price of Bitcoin refers to the total price at which the BTC supply last moved.

Bitcoin realization price chart. Source: Root/X

Fed FOMC Minutes Leading Macro Week

Cryptocurrency markets are in a period of relatively calm macroeconomic data in line with the summer recession.
This week, which is “important” for US consumer data, was marked by the announcement of the Federal Reserve minutes.

Key events of the week:
1st July Retail Sales Data – Tuesday
2. Building Permit data – Wednesday
3. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
4. Initial unemployment claims – Thursday
5. Philadelphia Fed PMI data – Thursday
6. Retail revenue including $WMT $TGT $HD
Important week for consumer data.

The minutes will show the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members’ stances on interest rate policy as they did during the rate hike last month.
Risky asset traders continue to view the September FOMC meeting as one. Possible pause in interest rate hikeswhich should support cryptocurrencies.
According to this FedWatch Tool CME Group has about 90% probability of this happening, but still more than a month to the meeting.

Probability chart of Fed target rates Source: CME Group

Meanwhile, it seems unlikely that BTC prices will have any immediate reaction to the data released this week, because even the most important releases from last week failed to move the markets.
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trade involves risk and readers should do their own research before making a decision.

Translation of Walter Rizzo

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