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Bitcoin stays at $42,000 but some turbulence begins

BTC price continues to rise; It even broke above the $42,200 resistance last week! Maybe it’s not nice to point this out… but we told you so. And now we also recommend closing some positions.

We are waiting for the main event of 2024 that could give further momentum to the cryptocurrency: the Bitcoin halving.

When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, miners received a reward of 50 BTC for each confirmed block. The first halving in 2012 reduced this reward to 25 BTC; then at 12.5 BTC in 2016; Finally, in May 2020, the last “halving” took place and the reward dropped to 6.25 BTC. According to predictions, the next halving will occur in approximately 134 days.

We are starting to see some turbulence in BTC: As you can see, the volatility index has risen. I think it is time to monetize your Bitcoin operations and, from a trading perspective, close long positions in BTC; On the contrary, I recommend waiting for new savings in terms of investment.

The move seen in the last candle was over 7.5%.

Strength of current trend

The strength of the trend is measured by a score ranging from -20 to +20; If the score is between -5 and +5, no trend can be detected. The strength of the trend is increasing, but we are not yet at a possible return level.

  • Previous week: 9
  • Current week: 5


  • $25,970
  • $26,400
  • $35,900
  • $38,000


In the above chart we used a point analysis methodology based on linear regression lines. Inside this video I will explain what happened.

POC volumetric analysis

Point of Control or POC (Point of Control) indicates the price line with maximum volume: thus, it indicates the level at which the market considers the fair value or true value of an asset in the period under consideration. Bitcoin’s POC currently stands at $37,200, a sharp increase compared to the last few weeks.

If we take the last round of rises as a reference point, we see that POC is higher in exactly the area it is currently hitting.

Seasonality analysis

Seasonal forecasts were largely respected this week too. Additionally, due to seasonality, it is time to close the options or at least lighten/maintain the positions.

I remember that the seasonality indicator determines movements and direction, not size. This is a I have indicator, is available free of charge to anyone who wishes to download and install it on TradingView. All my analysis is performed with software provided by TradingView.

Arbitrage opportunities

The chart below analyzes the price of BTC in relation to itself across two major cryptocurrency exchanges. In particular, the chart is obtained by calculating BTC (Coinbase) – BTC (Binance): we would all expect a flat chart where the values ​​are always very close to zero, but there can be misalignments between the two major operators in the industry, even as much as 2800 USD in some cases.

Last week didn’t offer many arbitrage opportunities other than the nice divergence at USD 117 a few days ago. I recommend you take a look at the site to better understand this type of trading

Mirko Castignani He is a trader, entrepreneur and financial educator. As a teacher since 2017, he has collaborated with trading companies of the caliber of Avatrade, WeBank and SaxoBank, Directa SIM, iBroker. He is also a member of SIAT and AIEF, as well as being a guest on American financial markets on CNBC.

He founded it together with Andrea Vaturi in 2013. Unfair Advantage: Financial education company currently collaborating with leading Italian credit institutions and Spanish brokers. Today he is also part of the board of directors of ANPIB, the National Association of Private and Investment Bankers.

He regularly posts market updates on his own account telegram channel. He also comments on the markets live from his own account every day at 15.30 (at the opening of Wall Street). Youtube channel. Class is broadcast live every Tuesday at 2.20pm on CNBC, Sky channel 507.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading transaction involves risk, so you should do your own research before making a decision.

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